On May 20, 2024, President Volodymyr Zelensky’s five-year presidential term expired. Now Zelensky and Ukraine must decide on how best to move forward in the face of the Russo-Ukrainian war while maintaining credibility. Not only will Zelensky have to contend with the Ukrainian people for his presidential position, but he will have to work to signal to Russia and his international supporters that he is still a credible representative of the state. For many states, it is unquestioned that during war, elections may be postponed in order to maintain stability; However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was in part predicated on the declaration that Ukraine was run by “neo-Nazis.” Zelensky has stated that now is not the time to hold political elections, but in order to continue to represent Ukraine as a credible leader, he must take steps to be transparent and open about how he plans to hold elections.
When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Ukraine declared a state of martial law. Under a longstanding law, Ukraine is not able to hold elections under martial law has ceased. This provides the historical and legal grounds for Zelensky to delay elections until peace has been achieved. However, there are costs and benefits in doing so.
It is in President Zelensky’s best interest to be open and transparent with how he plans to hold elections under martial law. Not only would this provide political certainty for the Ukrainian citizens, but it signals strength and stability for the country as a whole. Lastly, it is in Zelensky’s interest to reconfirm his status as a presential leader to stand on the world stage and advocate for his country and its needs. This entry will attempt to identify the points of concern distinctive parties have voiced in response to President Zelensky’s upcoming presidential term expiration. By examining ways Zelensky can signal his intentions, Zelensky can show that he is committed to holding fair and timely elections at some designated point in the future. Examining how each party will view Zelensky’s decision to delay elections will provide a more accurate cost/benefit analysis for his resolution.
Ukraine: Domestic Legitimacy and Commitment to Democracy
Zelensky faces an interesting domestic predicament. The Russo-Ukrainian war broke out in February 2022, just over halfway through his presidential term. When the Russo-Ukrainian conflict started, Ukraine declared martial law. A Ukrainian law prohibits elections from happening when martial law is in effect, so elections cannot legally happen until Ukraine ceases martial law. Since the conflict is unlikely to end soon, Zelensky is stuck balancing competing interests. He faces the difficult challenge of knowing that this conflict is likely to carry on—given that peace negotiations have failed and both sides view the war as a fight for their survival—while understanding that elections need to happen.
The worst outcome for Zelensky is ignoring the question. Zelensky has stated that now is not the time to hold elections, given the challenges of the war. However, by calling upon Congress to extend martial law by 90 days without assuring the citizenry, Zelensky is signaling uncertainty. Observers have begun to call on Zelensky for more clarity on Ukraine’s domestic political situation and address how he plans to move forward with elections. Despite the turmoil that the citizens have endured for over two years now, commitment to democratic institutions and respecting the people’s interests is paramount to maintaining credible positions of power. Especially since Zelensky and Ukraine are seeking NATO membership, it is important to uphold democratic practices internally.
Furthermore, every decision, whether military or diplomatic, will be under question as Zelensky moves beyond May 20th. While he may have the people’s support now, his popularity may begin to wane as conflict worsens in the summer months. In addition, as international humanitarian and military aid trickles in he will face difficult opportunity costs on how to best use these funds. Any miscalculation could lead to his presidential downfall in a turbulent geo-political climate. A catastrophic blow to Ukraine could be that the people call for an emergency election when the situation is bleak, which would further destabilize the country. To mitigate this, Zelensky should seek to hold elections as soon as possible.
Russia: War Conflict and Commitment to Slander
Vladimir Putin himself won his presidential reelection in March 2024 with over 87% of the votes. His presidential reelection also came during wartime. While Putin did declare martial law a month after the invasion, it did not stop him from holding elections. Putin can make the case that if Russia can hold wartime elections, then why can’t Ukraine? Despite the obvious issues with this argument, the comparison could be compelling for those who support the invasion. Primarily, it paints Putin and Russia in a democratic light, one in which they value the electoral process. Furthermore, it legitimizes Putin as a credible representative of the state.
Putin will use this opportunity to further defend his decision to invade Ukraine and undermine Zelensky as an official leader and representative of the state. To combat this, it is in Zelensky’s short- and long-term interests to issue an official memorandum (or some similar notice) starting his intent to hold elections but most importantly signaling his party’s support of the decision. If Zelensky can signal to the rest of the world that the majority of Ukrainian people along with those in political power are accepting of his decision to push back elections, this will diminish Putin’s political assaults.
While state media in Russia is under Putin’s thumb, there are still channels through which to get international information. While the spread of Ukraine’s legal decision to push back elections might not reach every Russian’s ear, for those who do not support the invasion it signals that Zelensky and Ukraine are still working towards building a democratic society that works for the people.
International Allies
Zelensky also needs to show his credibility to his international allies. His country is still actively seeking admission to NATO and is working to increase funding for humanitarian and military aid. Ukraine will need to continue to show commitment to democratic values, especially since they desire NATO membership. One major step would be to outline how he will govern the country as a wartime president and the steps he will take to ensure a fair and timely election. Without this step, he could potentially hinder the work he and his country have made in striving toward membership.
The United States alone has sent approximately $175 billion to Ukraine. Of this figure, $107 billion supports the Ukrainian government directly in areas such as institutions, infrastructure, and military support while the remaining funds go to supporting various US activities in the war. There is a tremendous amount of money flowing into the country, so international allies want to make sure a credible head of state is receiving the funds. As this war drags on, and Ukraine moves farther from May 20th, it is essential that Zelensky and his political party remain transparent about holding elections and open to doing so.
Conclusion
President Zelensky is legally in a difficult place given the current Russo-Ukrainian war and Ukraine’s enforcement of martial law. In order to signal credibility, both domestically and internationally, it is in his best interest to be transparent and open about how and when elections will take place during this conflict. While there is fear of potential Russian influence during the election, as there was speculation in the US 2020 election, this is not a matter Zelensky can delay forever. By ignoring the question, he not only signals uncertainty for the future of his citizenry, but he signals unwillingness to hold elections for both Russia and his international allies. If Zelensky will not hold timely elections or announce a plan to do so, Russia will be quick to fill the silence.
Meredith Hutchens is currently pursuing her master’s in International Security at the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University. She is also a network member at the Initiative for the Study of a Stable Peace. Her research interests include counterterrorism, intelligence, international relations, and conflict resolution with the goal of addressing today’s pressing security issues informed by economic analysis. Hutchens earned her B.S. in Economics and Mathematics with a concentration in Statistics from the College of Charleston where she was a Market Process Scholar at the Center for Public Choice and Market Process.
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