April 11, 2025
Although Greenland’s independence movement is not new, it has been gaining momentum over the last two decades and has recently benefited from the international spotlight brought about in part by President Donald Trump’s comments about annexing the island “one way or the other.” The world’s largest island is a semi-autonomous Danish territory that hosts a population of approximately 56,000 people, 88% of whom are indigenous Greenlanders. Though currently politically aligned with Europe as a Danish territory, an independent Greenland would be a potential target for regional competition with Russia and China due to its natural resources and strategic Arctic location. While independence does not seem likely in the near term, the West should consider actions to help integrate an independent Greenland into Western security and economic frameworks to strengthen regional Arctic stability and help counter any adverse Russian or Chinese influence.
Greenland shares a long history with Denmark, first becoming a Danish colony in 1775 and then a territory after 1953. It gained limited self-rule in 2009 in all areas except for foreign affairs, defense, and monetary policy. It now also has the legal right to declare independence after holding a referendum. A 2025 poll revealed that 84% of Greenlanders want independence from Denmark, up from 67.7% in 2019. All six main Greenlandic political parties support independence, but they differ in timing and approach. The island’s March 2025 parliamentary elections exemplified these tensions: the first-place party, Demokraatik, advocates for a gradual approach to independence while Naleraq, the party that placed second, supports independence as soon as possible. In addition to Trump’s annexation comments, rising nationalism has also been fomented by a recent spotlight on Danish scandals against Greenlanders in the 1950s-60s. Greenland’s Prime Minister Múte Egede in January 2025 affirmed that “We do not want to be Danish, we do not want to be American. We want to be Greenlandic.” While Danish leaders have repeated that Greenland “is not for sale,” Copenhagen has also stated it respects Greenlanders’ right to decide their own future. However, Greenland’s bid for independence is hindered by its financial dependence on a $500 million annual subsidy and economic support from Copenhagen as well as concerns about a decline in the standard of living without Danish subventions. Greenland needs to achieve economic self-sufficiency prior to any declaration of independence, making independence unlikely in the immediate future.
However, as Greenland moves towards independence, there are a few geopolitical actions that Western nations would be wise to consider in order to enhance regional Arctic security and stability. First, NATO should provide Greenland with a path to eventual membership to strengthen the Arctic military and defense postures of both the island and NATO amid increasing Russian and Chinese military activity in the region, especially given the rapidly melting sea ice. Greenland also occupies a strategic position between North America and Russia, which would make it a valuable ally for the U.S. and Canada. It also makes up part of the Greenland-Iceland-U.K. (GIUK) Gap which could serve as a naval chokepoint to prevent Russia’s Northern Fleet from reaching the Atlantic in the event of a conflict between Russia and NATO. Second, Western countries and businesses should invest in Greenland soon to help further its economic development and stability and tie its economy to the West. Promoting Greenlandic tourism and partnering to sustainably develop Greenland’s mining industry to access its vast mineral deposits are advantageous. This and encouraging the development of strong trade ties with Europe could facilitate Greenland’s entry into the E.U., further integrating Greenland’s economy with Europe and the West. Investment and the development of trade ties would also help counter potential Chinese economic influence. Beijing may view an independent Greenland as a target to gain an Arctic foothold, as China harbors growing regional ambitions in the Arctic and has a history of leveraging economic investment to spread its influence and further its own geopolitical goals (i.e. its Belt and Road Initiative). Ensuring the integration of an independent Greenland into Western security and economic frameworks would be essential to countering Russian threats and Chinese influence in the Arctic.
Greenland’s growing independence movement merits active planning from Western nations because a new Arctic nation has the potential to impact Arctic security. While economic self-sufficiency remains a barrier to the island’s sovereignty, should Greenland eventually achieve independence, engagement from the West could help ensure the new nation’s stability by encouraging its integration with Western institutions? Such engagement would also reduce Greenland’s vulnerability to potential Chinese and Russian pressures. As the Arctic’s importance in global and regional security increases, a sovereign Greenland has the potential to attract attention from governments that seek to reshape regional power dynamics. This makes it important for Western nations to engage with Greenland both in its current status and in the event it pursues independence.
Bio: Abby Bell is currently pursuing her master’s in International Security and a graduate certificate in National Security and Public Policy at the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University. Her research interests include grand strategy, Russian security studies, intelligence, and international relations. Prior to graduate school, Abby contracted with the U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor. She also has experience in the non-profit sector. After graduation, Abby hopes to pursue a career in federal public service. Abby earned her B.A. in Global Studies and minors in Spanish and geography from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill in 2017.
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