April 7th, 2025
In recent years, the physical effects of climate change have visibly worsened as sea levels continue to rise and wildfires ravage parts of the world. The impact on geopolitical tensions has been equally evident as the melting ice caps in the Arctic have thrust the region to the forefront of international relations as this era of Great Power Competition unfolds. The emergence of new trade routes and greater access to coveted natural resources has prompted Russia and China to work together to circumvent the United States and its Arctic state allies. But even as the two nations share a “no-limits friendship,” Russia and China’s cooperation in the Arctic is quite unsustainable. While it may seem the two nations are well-positioned to jointly benefit, especially after securing China’s status as a “near-Arctic” state through the Polar Silk Road Initiative, it is actually their shared access to new trade routes and natural resources that will inevitably splinter collaboration and cause a clash of interests.
Before there was even an official announcement of a “no-limits friendship” between Russia and China in February 2022, an alignment in Sino-Russian interests in the Arctic began to form as early as the 2010s. A joint prioritization of their Arctic access and collaboration meant there could be a resurgence of new trade routes to benefit Asia and an abundance of natural resources that would invigorate both of their economies. Geopolitically, this combined effort also provided a calculated opportunity to counter the United States – by reinforcing their collective interests, Russia and China understood their sustained efforts in the Arctic would ensure a rebalancing of foreign policy and trade away from the West. Although they have demonstrated a willingness to collaborate as a means to restrain the United States, the central focus of their cooperation to grow their energy sources and decrease their dependence on maritime choke points actually reinforces the inevitability of a collapse in their cooperation. China and Russia may see the threat of the United States as an adequate reason to sustain their Arctic efforts, but it is not enough to overcome the instincts of state competition for limited resources and limited access that both countries seek.
For Russia and China, their agreement to develop the Polar Silk Road Initiative largely materialized because of the transformation in the Arctic terrain. Russia’s main objective in working with China in the Arctic has been to more effectively sell its natural gas and oil reserves which would strengthen its own trade benefits with China from the access to the new trade routes. Similarly, China’s ability to reduce its dependence on the Strait of Malacca and enhance both the convenience and cost-effectiveness of its maritime trade would be an extraordinary economic advantage. Even though the prospective joint use of these emerging sea routes seems like a clear sign of Russia and China’s unwavering “no-limits friendship,” the real test of their cooperation will be when these sea routes become fully functioning and are inundated with commercial vessels from around the world. Overcrowded trade routes will push states to ensure that their ships receive a higher priority than others by any means necessary. And if inter-state skirmishes start to occur because of this, the Arctic Council or the United Nations may involve themselves to create more stringent international maritime rules, further prompting states to act in their self-interest. Whenever this struggle arises, Russia and China will no doubt act to ensure their own economic fortunes take precedence over the other, regardless of the partnership they share.
Further, the melting ice caps in the Arctic have also accelerated access to fossil fuels and other minerals buried beneath the once-frozen land and seabed. The creation of the Polar Silk Road Initiative allowed China and Russia to jointly benefit from this increasing supply of natural resources, particularly as Chinese companies began investing in Russia’s energy projects in the region. Recent western sanctions, however, have been successful in disrupting Russia’s production capabilities and have significantly damaged Chinese investments. If their joint collaboration continues to destabilize and pose a direct threat to their economic security because of their shared access to these resources, it is highly unlikely to believe that either country would want to continue to work together. And as oil, natural gas, and rare earth elements are vital parts of China and Russia’s individual economic prowess, their limited supply will equally factor in causing a rift between the two – neither will hesitate to try and take full control over an oil or natural gas field if and when these resources inevitably become scarce.
The economic opportunities prompted by the emergence of new trade routes and natural resources in the Arctic will ultimately drive a resource competition for Russia and China’s own needs. While both countries presently benefit from their joint economic venture there, the collapse of the Arctic into a tragedy of the commons is an unavoidable outcome that will force all states, including Russia and China, to take actions that prioritize their own needs above all. If Russia or China’s economic and regional security is put at risk, the “no-limits friendship” will not be given any special consideration. It may not happen soon, but as the world awaits this eventual breakdown of Sino-Russian relations in the Arctic, it will be up to the United States and its Arctic allies to be ready to deal with the ramifications.
Jared Sofia is a second-year graduate student in the Schar School’s International Security Program. He holds a B.A. in International Studies with a concentration in National Security and Foreign Policy and a minor in History from American University. His research interests include U.S.-Russia relations, nuclear non-proliferation, and European politics & security. After earning his degree, he hopes to continue his work supporting the United States Air Force’s security cooperation efforts.
Photo can be found here.
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