Russia’s largest security goal in the Republic of Georgia is to prevent Georgia’s Westward integration, as Moscow regards Georgia as an important component of its near abroad through which it can maintain a sphere of influence and a security buffer with the West. Consequently, Moscow views Tbilisi’s attempts to orient itself with the West and its associated international organizations, like the E.U., as hostile to its security. Russia demonstrated the lengths that it was willing to go to in order to keep Georgia out of the West’s sphere of influence in the 2008 Russo-Georgian War, resulting in Russia’s victory and the continued occupation of Georgia’s two breakaway regions, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which amount to approximately 20% of Georgia’s territory. However, even in the wake of Tbilisi’s recent actions to further align with the E.U, Russia has sought stronger ties with Georgia, reflecting renewed efforts to keep Georgia in its sphere of influence. Russia’s actions to court the ruling Georgia Dream party aim to drive and exploit a growing wedge between Georgia and the E.U. The E.U. must take a clear position on Georgia’s recent disputed parliamentary election results if it is serious about considering Georgia for future membership at this critical political crossroads.
Despite Russia’s and Georgia’s historical tenuous relationship since the 2008 war, their relationship has improved in recent years. In 2023, Moscow lifted the ban on direct flights between Russia and Georgia and also abolished long-standing visa requirements for Georgians. Then in September 2024, Russia’s foreign minister announced that Russia was open to a “compromise that could see [Russian] troops leave Abkhazia and South Ossetia,” which could be a powerful bargaining chip with Tbilisi. These moves came unexpectedly in the wake of several steps that Georgia’s government took to increase integration with the E.U. in recent years. For example, Georgia signed a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement with the E.U. in 2016, and Georgia became a candidate country for E.U. membership in 2023.
What could explain Russia’s seemingly conciliatory gestures towards Georgia despite Georgia’s pro-European movements? Russia is aiming to exploit an emerging rift between Tbilisi and the E.U. by attempting to strengthen relations with the Georgia Dream party, which has increasingly adopted a pro-Russia platform despite widespread public support for pro-Western alignment. This rift began in 2022 when Georgia did not join most of the Western community in sanctioning Russia for invading Ukraine, a decision for which it suffered heavy criticism from the E.U. Later, E.U. officials critiqued that as a candidate country, Georgia should comply with the E.U. sanctions. Relations further soured when the E.U. announced a freeze on Georgia’s candidate status in July 2024 following the passage of a controversial “Russian-style,” “foreign agents” law. Then in early October 2024, E.U. officials warned the Georgia Dream party, amid recent criticism that Georgia’s democracy was backsliding, that the country could face sanctions if the upcoming parliamentary elections were not free, fair, and peaceful.
Moscow’s recent activities towards Georgia demonstrate that Russia has not given up on obstructing Georgia-E.U. alignment despite Georgia’s commitments toward greater E.U. integration. Furthermore, as Russia’s military efforts are overwhelmingly focused on Ukraine, Russia must adapt its security strategy methods to undermine Tbilisi’s viability as an independent and sovereign state as it faces a crossroads between greater E.U. integration and closer ties. Rather than using military force as Russia did in 2008, dangling the possibility of withdrawing an estimated 15,000 Russian troops from the breakaway regions could be a powerful incentive for Georgia to increase its engagement with Moscow. Simultaneously, it would permit Russia to drive a wedge between Georgia and the E.U., which would be loath to see the smaller nation improve ties with Russia.Ultimately, Moscow’s actions underscore that Georgia remains an important element in Russia’s near abroad and where it seeks to maintain its perceived sphere of influence.
On October 26, Georgia held parliamentary elections that were regarded by many Georgians as a referendum on whether to further integrate with the E.U. or side with the Georgia Dream party and its appeasement to Russia. The Georgia Dream party claimed a contested victory of 54%, which the four pro-Western opposition parties have refused to recognize, reporting electoral fraud and irregularities. Georgia’s president, a critic of the ruling party, has referred to the vote’s outcome as a “Russian special operation.” While it is unclear at present if Russia had a direct role in Georgia’s elections, the opposition parties intend to boycott the new parliament and continue to call for supporters to take to the streets in peaceful protests.
The E.U. has called for an investigation into the alleged election irregularities, but it has refrained from taking a position on the election’s legitimacy, much to the disappointment of the opposition. The E.U. must take a clear stance on recognizing the election results if this supranational organization that champions free and fair elections is serious about both promoting democratic ideals in Europe and working to further Georgia’s path to E.U. membership. With the future of Georgia’s E.U. integration in the balance at this pivotal moment, the E.U. needs to decide if it will support the fight for democracy and respect for the rule of law in Georgia or let Tbilisi slip away under the shadow of Moscow.
Abby Bell is a M.A. student in the International Security program with the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University. She holds a B.A. in Global Studies with concentrations in international politics and Latin America and minors in Spanish and geography from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Prior to attending graduate school, Abby worked as a federal contractor with the U.S. Department of State’s Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor. She also has experience in the non-profit sector and has lived and worked in Ecuador and Spain. Her academic and research interests include grand strategy, U.S. foreign policy and national security, and international security. After graduating, Abby hopes to pursue a career in foreign policy and national security.
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